The International Energy Agency revised its coal outlook in an update published on 10 September. Global demand is now forecast to rise by 1.2% in 2026, reaching 8.94 billion tonnes. Earlier expectations had pointed to a slight decline. The change reflects disruption to energy markets during the Middle East conflict. Reduced shipments of liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz have raised gas prices, encouraging substitution where coal plants have spare capacity.
This is an indirect effect: coal itself barely moves through that shipping route. Instead, the changing relative cost of fuels influences electricity producers' choices. The outlook for 2027 remains uncertain and depends partly on whether gas shipments recover. If supplies improve and prices move back towards earlier levels, demand for coal could fall. Continued disruption could push consumption higher instead. The forecast therefore describes a conditional market response, not a fixed path that is certain to continue at the same pace.